Wild weekend at Watkins Glen

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/13/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Which one of the following things happened this weekend?

1) Robby Gordon made more friends than enemies.

2) Bill Elliott showed another reason they call him "Awesome Bill from Dawsonville" when he gave up his ride so Boris Said would get a chance to race.

3) NASCAR's winningest active driver on a road course, Jeff Gordon, simply drove off the track while leading with two laps to go.

4) Tony Stewart continued his annual summer display of driving prowess, winning his third race in four events.

5) Two of NASCAR's biggest names, Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya, got into a yelling and shoving match during the race.

The answer, as any avid Nextel Cup fan will tell you, is all of the above.

The Centurion Boats at the Glen was one of the most compelling races of the year. The drama began even before the green flag dropped.

After driver Robby Gordon self-destructed in a Busch Series race at Montreal a week ago, he was in the doghouse of many fans and NASCAR. Though he may have been wronged by NASCAR in a caution-flag ruling, his punting of race leader Marcos Ambrose during the race's final laps was not appreciated.

But owner Robby Gordon showed some intestinal fortitude when he offered Ambrose his first chance in a Nextel Cup car as "repayment" for his actions. Unfortunately, rain ended Ambrose's chance to qualify, but both owner and driver have said that they will try again sometime later this year.

When Nextel Cup qualifying was rained out of Friday, a number of other drivers were left out in the cold too. One of them, Boris Said, is a favorite up and down the garage and in the stands. His car didn't have enough owner points to qualify, and the only way he would be able to see the race was from the stands.

Then Bill Elliott stepped forward and offered his car to Said, who thought the racing legend was joking at first. But Elliott was serious, and after working out the details, Said would start from the back of the field. The "road course specialist" who taught many Nextel Cup drivers how to drive at Infineon and Watkins Glen finished a solid 14th. Better still, the "Saidheads" in the stands got a chance to see their favorite drive on the track.

The race itself was as exciting a road-course race as NASCAR has ever produced. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon were the class of the field, leading 71 of 90 laps. In the opening portion of the race, Gordon led Stewart, but on lap 14 Stewart took command. He was still in control on lap 45 when he inexplicably went too deep into turn one and spun the No.20 Home Depot Chevrolet.

Gordon jumped on the slip-up, as Stewart fell all the way to 19th before he could restart his car and get going. From there, Stewart drove with all the considerable talent that the Rushville, IN native owns and with two laps to go was back in second place pressuring Gordon.

Gordon had won nine times on road courses, and the usually unflappable driver seemed headed for No. 10. But in the same corner that Stewart had spun out earlier, Gordon showed that he was human after all. Like Stewart, he took it too deep into the corner, the car jumped on him and he found himself watching helplessly as Stewart flew by him and on to the victory.

And of course, what would a NASCAR event be without an argument between drivers? This one was between two pretty good ones - 2007 Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya.

It started when Montoya was hit from behind heading into the same treacherous turn one that Jeff Gordon and Stewart had so much trouble with. This time Montoya was sent careening into Harvick who could see his championship aspirations going up in tire smoke.

The two were stopped in the "grass" and both drivers were clearly angry. Harvick at Montoya, because that's who he saw hit him and Montoya at Martin Truex Jr., the driver who had push him into Harvick. Montoya tried explaining the situation, but Harvick wouldn't hear it. The two began shoving each other and had to be broken up before it got too bloody.

All-in-all, the race showed was what makes NASCAR so popular - great driving and great emotion.

Bravo!

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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