Underdogs ruling at upset-filled ACC tournament

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 -

GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) -The underdogs are trying to top each other at the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament - and they're succeeding.

``I've been seeing all the highlights of all the games, and what it seemed like is all the lower seeds were coming out on top,'' North Carolina State freshman Scott Wood said. ``I kind of didn't want to let them all down.''

Three upsets in the quarterfinal round set up a pair of unlikely semifinal matchups Saturday: Top-seeded Duke faces 12th-seeded Miami, and seventh-seeded Georgia Tech takes on 11th-seeded N.C. State.

The fourth-ranked Blue Devils - the only one of the top six seeds to make it to the semifinals - beat Virginia 57-46 before the Hurricanes started the binge of upsets by topping fourth-seeded Virginia Tech 70-65.

Then came the evening session, when the Yellow Jackets toppled No. 19 Maryland 69-64, and the Wolfpack beat third-seeded Florida State 58-52.

The ACC's two bottom seeds have made it to the semifinals, and five of the top six seeds are done - both firsts in the storied league tournament's history. In fact, never before had four of the top six been eliminated by this stage of the event.

``That's just one thing that I've noticed, and it just shows that the lower seeds have probably been wanting it a little bit more,'' Wood said. ``I think that's how it should be.''

At least one team - either N.C. State or Georgia Tech - is assured of becoming the latest ACC team to play four tournament games in four days. The Hurricanes, who sprung their second upset in a 24-hour period, hope to join them.

``In AAU, we played four games in one day. This is what I'm here for,'' said Miami's Durand Scott, who scored 11 of his 17 points in the final 6 minutes against the Hokies. ``This is what I like. I love to play basketball. I live for this. If I could play it nonstop without a break, I would do it.''

Three of the league's top players struggled just as mightily as its top teams.

ACC player of the year Greivis Vasquez of Maryland and fellow all-conference players Jon Scheyer of Duke and Malcolm Delaney of Virginia Tech combined to make 14 of 53 shots, including 3 of 25 from 3-point range.

The ACC's only favorite to win Friday used Scheyer's timely scoring surge. He scored seven of his 15 points during the decisive run against the Cavaliers.

Kyle Singler had 18 points and 11 rebounds, and Nolan Smith also had 15 points while Scheyer, the third member of Duke's ``Big Three,'' keyed the 11-0 run that saved the Blue Devils from joining the league's growing list of upset victims.

Instead, they'll face the Hurricanes, who had dropped 11 of 14 games before arriving here and joined the 2006 Wake Forest team as the only 12th-seed to reach the semifinals. DeQuan Jones added 14 points for the Hurricanes, who had never won two games in their previous five ACC tournaments.

In the other half of the bracket, Wood had his second hot shooting performance against the Seminoles, scoring 18 points on six 3-pointers to send the Wolfpack into the semifinals for the first time since coach Sidney Lowe reached the title game in his first season in 2007. They'll face a Georgia Tech team that blew most of a 19-point lead, overcame 25 turnovers and needed Iman Shumpert to strip the ball from Vasquez in the closing seconds.

That gave the Yellow Jackets' NCAA tournament resume a boost, with Selection Sunday drawing closer. Not that coach Paul Hewitt is looking that far ahead just yet.

``Right now, we're in this tournament. We can answer all the questions ourselves,'' Hewitt said. ``It's in our hands. We'll just see what happens tomorrow, and we'll take it from there.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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