NBA Finals: Detroit vs. Dallas?

Basketball Betting Lines

02/20/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When was the last time that a team held the eighth and final playoff spot at the All-Star break and was the second choice to win its conference? Miami is currently a .500 club at 26-26 but yet is 2-1 to win the East!

At 32-19, Detroit has won 11 of its last 14 games and leads the Heat by almost seven full games in the standings. The Pistons, however, only are favored by the slimmest of margins at 9-5. Which club, at this stage of the season, provides the most value for the money? No doubt that its the Pistons, who are a lock to be either a one or a two-seed come the postseason. Miami, on the other hand, will be lucky to host a first-round playoff series.

In the Western Conference, the Mavericks and the Suns are the teams to beat, which is why they are the top two choices at 7-5 and 5-2, respectively. Dallas has not missed a beat all year long, losing only nine of its first 53 games. Phoenix has been hit with the injury bug, as all-world guard Steve Nash has missed the last four games with a badly bruised right shoulder. Coincidentally, the Suns have dropped their last three games.

Time to examine the top teams in the league and figure out which clubs present the best value to win each conference:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) DETROIT (9-5)

All the Pistons could do in last seasons playoffs vs. the Heat was fail to reach 93 points in all six games. Their defense was stellar in the first two rounds, as they held both Cleveland and Miami to an average of 92 points per game. The last 11 contests they played all went UNDER. Since January 1, 2007, Detroit has played 22 games and has held the opposition to an average of 90 ppg, so the solid defense is still there. The Pistons, 14-8 in those contests, are 11-5 against the other top eight teams in the conference standings. Another statistic of note is that Detroit is the only Eastern club with a .500 or better road record at 15-9. In fact, the closest team is Indiana at 11-14. The Pistons are the best squad in the East, and their 9-5 odds seem about right.

2) MIAMI (2-1)

It is true that Shaquille ONeal has played only 13 games this year, and thats the main reason the Heat are so close to missing the postseason. Obviously, a lot of people think Shaqs return will propel the Heat to loftier standings, but will it really? ONeal, at 13.5 ppg, is averaging approximately half his career mark of 26 points per game. He is also at the lowest point of his career in rebounding with only six boards per game. Miami is dead last at 5-10 against the other top eight teams in the East. I know that Shaq has missed most of those games, but at 2-1 odds, the Heat quite possibly could be the worst bet of all time.

3) CLEVELAND (9-2)

The Cavaliers have the second-worst record at 7-10 vs. the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is doing all he can to carry Cleveland, but hes averaging five points less per game this year than last, and the team had a better winning percentage last season. On the flip side, the change in the rules allowing the second-best team in a conference to be in the two-spot will be a huge benefit and that could carry the Cavs all the way to the conference finals. Cleveland is very playable at 9-2.

4) CHICAGO (6-1)

Most of the so-called experts were jumping all over Chicagos bandwagon during the preseason after the club added Ben Wallace. His numbers with the Bulls are extremely similar to when he was with Detroit, but its obvious the supporting cast here is nowhere near the level of that of the Pistons. Chicago is playing great ball within its division (7-2) and is 10-7 vs. the other top eight teams in the conference. However, the Bulls need more playoff experience before they can seriously challenge the top teams in the league. Pass.

5) WASHINGTON (15-1)

The Wizards are much-improved from last seasons squad that took Cleveland to six games in the conference quarterfinals. The series was tied at two before the Cavs won the final two games in overtime. Washington very well could make an even better run in this years playoffs, especially considering how well the club has played against Detroit (5-2) and Cleveland (4-2) in the last couple of seasons. A fantastic longshot play at 15-1.

THE REST OF THE EAST

Indiana, Toronto and Orlando sit at 16-1, while New Jersey, with all its injuries, is 25-1. The Pacers have gone backwards in recent years, from the conference finals, to the semis to the quarters. Despite their mid-season acquisitions, they still lost to Denver, Seattle and Golden State all at home earlier this month.

Toronto is definitely a team to watch in coming years, but this season will be a learning year for the young Raptors. The Magic are 5-12 in their last 17 games, so I won't even waste my time with them. Finally, the Nets are battling too many injuries to even be considered a factor down the stretch.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) DALLAS (7-5)

The Mavericks have been the best team in the league all season long, with winning streaks of 12 and 13, and they currently are riding high on a nine- game stretch. For the Western Conference, only six teams will be included: Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Houston and the Lakers. To no ones surprise, the Mavs have, by far and away, the best record vs. the other teams at 10-4. After failing to win the NBA title last season, Dallas has been on a mission to do so this year, and the Mavs get my vote to take the West even at 7-5 odds.

2) PHOENIX (5-2)

Phoenix is the sucker bet of the West. The Suns failed the past two seasons in the conference finals, which shows that their style of play falters against the top defenses (Dallas and San Antonio) when the chips are on the table. Despite its 39-13 record, Phoenix sports the worst record against the other top five teams at 3-7, and at 5-2 odds, I'd rather put my dough on other teams with much better value.

3) SAN ANTONIO (5-1)

The Spurs have had a disappointing first half at 35-18 for a .660 winning percentage. They are currently fourth in the West, yet they would have finished third in the entire NBA last year with that very same winning percentage. San Antonio has failed to win more than five straight games the entire season and is 11-10 since January 1. Another disturbing statistic is a 5-9 record vs. the other top five Western clubs. Once again, this is where money management comes into play. Which team has a better chance of winning a conference, the Spurs at 5-1 having to go up against the Mavs and Suns, or the Cavs at 9-2 with Detroit being their main competition?

4) UTAH (9-1)

Carlos Boozer will be back by late February, and Utah has been playing magnificent as of late, winning six of the seven games that its leading scorer has missed. The Jazz should reach the final four in the West, and anything can happen from there. Utah is 8-4 vs. the top-rated clubs and has not lost to Phoenix since November 2005. If the Jazz square off with the Suns in the semifinals, all they would need is one more series win to reach the NBA Finals. If Dallas gets upset early, 9-1 looks very enticing as the longshot play in the West.

5) HOUSTON (10-1)

Every year, it seems that the Rockets must overcome some sort of major injury. Last year it was Tracy McGrady who missed 35 games, and this season, Yao Ming has played in only 27 of the teams 52 contests. Despite missing its big man, Houston is a mere 1 1/2 games behind San Antonio for fourth in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, thats not the spot to be in, as Dallas could very well be the Rockets' second-round opponent. Houston is not worth a flyer, even at 10-1.

6) LOS ANGELES LAKERS (16-1)

LA has dropped 11 of its last 15 games and finds itself only five games out of the playoffs. Of the top six teams in the West, the Lakers are the only club with a below .500 road record, which doesn't bode well for the postseason. No chance.

THE REST OF THE WEST

Why would anyone bet money on the Nuggets at 19-1? They are only one game over .500 and are 8-12 with Allen Iverson in the lineup. This is where value comes into play, as a team such as Washington at 15-1 is a much better play in the weaker Eastern Conference.

Minnesota and New Orleans are 28-1, while the Clippers are 32-1. None of these clubs has a realistic chance of winning the West, let alone making the playoffs and NOT playing the Mavericks in the first round.

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Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.

Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"

A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."

Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.

In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.

"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."

Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.

But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"

Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.

This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.

Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.

In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.

No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.

And that's all any bettor can ask for.

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