Buckeyes host Wildcats in Big Ten action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/17/2007 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the Big Ten Conference standings meet in Columbus tonight, as the Northwestern Wildcats come calling on the seventh-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.

Northwestern started the season a solid 10-3, but losses in all four of its league bouts thus far has the squad just three games over .500 at the moment. The Wildcats bring up the rear in the Big Ten at 0-4, and they have dropped three of the four games by double figures. The lone exception during that span was last Saturday's 56-50 setback to No. 3 Wisconsin.

As for Ohio State, it is 2-1 in Big Ten play and 14-3 overall. Thad Matta's Buckeyes stepped out of conference last weekend to entertain SEC foe Tennessee in a game that lived up to the hype as OSU prevailed in a nailbiter, 68-66. It was the Buckeyes' first win over a ranked opponent this season after dropping bouts to North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin, and the win improved the club to 27-0 in non-league home games under Matta. Ohio State is a perfect 11-0 at home this season while Northwestern is 0-3 in true road tilts.

Ohio State owns a commanding 107-44 lead in the all-time series with Northwestern, and the Wildcats haven't topped the Buckeyes since 1998. OSU is the only Big Ten team NU head coach Bill Carmody has yet to beat.

Defense is traditionally the name of the game in Evanston, and the Wildcats have proven themselves more than worthy this season. Northwestern's foes are scoring just 56.5 ppg on 42.6 percent shooting from the field, and the 'Cats own a winning record despite being outrebounded by 7.7 rpg. Offensively, NU is hitting 44.8 percent of its total shots and putting up just 58.8 ppg. The team boasts three double-digit scorers, but Kevin Coble's club-best 12.1 ppg demonstrates a lack of big-time offensive production. Craig Moore and Tim Doyle check in with 10.2 and 10.1 ppg, respectively, with Doyle also serving as the team's primary playmaker with 95 assists in 17 games.

The 'Cats gave visiting Wisconsin all it could handle over the weekend, as the Badgers made good on just 2-of-12 three-point tries, suffered 15 turnovers and allowed the home team to actually hit more field goals in the contest (20-17). Jeff Ryan led the NU attack with 18 points and Doyle added 11 points and eight assists.

Freshman sensation Greg Oden had arguably his best game of the season in Ohio State's recent win over Tennessee, as the 7-0 Indianapolis native scored 24 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. Oden, who hit 9-of-13 shots from the field, also played a huge role defensively, coming up with three blocks and a steal in addition to making the Volunteers think twice about coming into the lane throughout the game. Fellow rookie Mike Conley Jr. poured in a career-high 16 points. Ohio State turned the ball over 20 times, but claimed an 18-5 edge in points from the foul line as well as a dominating 46-30 rebounding advantage in earning the narrow victory.

Despite missing the first seven games due to a wrist injury, Oden has been nothing short of spectacular during his freshman campaign, hitting 61.1 percent of his field goal attempts in averaging 14.9 ppg. He also pulls down 9.8 rpg and has 39 blocks for an average of nearly four per game. Oden doesn't have to go it alone however, as the Buckeyes have three other double-digit scorers, with Daequan Cook (14.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Ron Lewis (12.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and Ivan Harris (10.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg) all producing this season. Conley Jr. is averaging 9.4 ppg and leads the team with 6.4 apg.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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