17th-ranked Cougars set to pounce on Mustangs

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/21/2009 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 17th-ranked Houston Cougars are set to play their first home game in nearly a month, as they square off against the SMU Mustangs in Conference USA action this weekend at Robertson Stadium.

The Cougars wrapped up a three-game road trip over the weekend, using a big second half to come away with a 44-16 victory over Tulane on Saturday.

"You know, I'm proud of them," said head coach Kevin Sumlin of his team's performance after the intermission. "I thought they came out and created their own energy. They moved the ball offensively to score, stopped them on defense, and blocked a punt. Those are the kind of things that on the road, you couldn't have a better series of events to start the second half."

It was the second win in a row for the Cougars, who suffered their lone loss at Texas-El Paso (58-41) to begin the road trip. Now at 5-1, Houston is off to its best start since 2003 and the team is playing at home for the first time since clipping Texas Tech (29-28) in a thriller back on September 26th.

As for the Mustangs, they have dropped three of their last four games following a 2-0 start to the season. Two of those losses have come in overtime, including a 38-35 setback to Navy this past weekend.

"There's no formula to it," head coach June Jones said about winning overtime games. "You just have to do it. You have to win."

SMU is now 1-10 all-time in overtime games and the two extra-session losses could prove costly for a program that is looking for its first bowl bid since 1984. Still, the Mustangs bring a 2-0 league record to his game and one of those victories came over East Carolina (28-21), the defending C-USA champions.

With respect to the all-time series, the Cougars hold a 14-9-1 edge against SMU and that includes a 44-38 triumph in last season's meeting.

Bo Levi Mitchell's 10-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson with 1:35 to go forced overtime, but the Mustangs missed a field goal on their possession in the extra-period and Navy's Joe Buckley hit a 24-yarder to give the Midshipmen a 38-35 win this past weekend. It was a disappointing finish for SMU, which gained 376 total yards, right on its season average of 365.0 ypg.

Unlike prior games however, the Ponies had success on the ground and rushed for 176 yards, more than double their average of 84.2 ypg. Shawnbrey McNeal recorded his second 100-yard game of the season and first against a BCS program, toting 15 times for 131 yards. The Mustangs don't run a whole lot, but when given the chance, McNeal has proven capable with 500 yards on the season.

The Mustangs like to spread the field on offense and let Mitchell pick apart opposing defenses. The second-year quarterback though, has had issues with mistakes and has already thrown 10 picks after leading the nation with 23 in 2008. Mitchell, however, is still average 280.8 ypg through the air and against Navy he threw for 200 yards and a score, although he was just 19-of-41 on pass attempts.

Emmanuel Sanders is the primary threat to opposing secondary's and he continues to churn out the numbers, leading SMU with 53 catches for 581 yards and a pair of scores.

After just five games, SMU's defense is noticeably better than a year ago, but the unit still needs to improve on the 393.0 total ypg it is surrendering. The defense though, has compensated for some of the surrendered yards by forcing 20 turnovers, including 13 interceptions.

Last weekend, the Ponies were forced to face Navy's option attack and the defense was shredded for 331 yards and five scores on the ground. The defense did score on a fumble return by Sterling Moore and the group even forced five punts, but it just wasn't enough in the end.

"We played good enough to win defensively," said coach Jones. "If you had told me we could have made them punt five times, I would have thought we'd won."

Chase Kennemer paced the defense with 11 tackles, as he continues to top the roster in stops, with 67 for the year.

Offensively, there are very few teams that can match the explosiveness that Houston brings to the field each week, as the Cougars are generating 40.8 ppg behind a whopping 560.3 total ypg. A majority of the success is attributed to a passing attack that is led by Case Keenum, who has been mentioned as a Heisman Trophy candidate. The efficient quarterback has completed 70.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,501 yards, with 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Last weekend, Keenum threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns on 33-of-46 tosses in another workmen like effort.

"We came out a little mellow in the first half," said Keenum, whose team was up just 9-6 at the break. "We weren't executing in the red zone like we needed to."

Keenum rallied the troops after the intermission and led Houston to 35 second- half points on his way to a sixth straight 300-yard passing performance this season.

James Cleveland caught one of Keenum's touchdown passes last weekend and he has emerged as a threat each week, leading the team with 45 catches and six touchdowns. Tyron Carrier (483 yards) and Patrick Edwards (381) are two other weapons Keenum utilizes on a weekly basis.

Bryce Beall is the team's top option in the backfield and he had 62 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries against Tulane. The versatile Beall has made the most of his rushing attempts this season, going for 437 yards, and he is also part of the passing game, catching 21 balls.

The Cougars certainly need to tighten up things on defense, even if the offense is scoring at such high rate and quick pace. The unit is currently surrendering a way to high 448.2 total ypg and that includes 222.7 ypg on the ground. The defense has managed to recover 10 fumbles, but its nine sacks and four picks are two areas in need of improvement.

Last weekend, Houston bent, but it never broke and gave up just 16 points to Tulane despite allowing 437 total yards, including 187 rushing. The Cougars came up with one interception and two sacks and that helped the defense keep Tulane out of the end zone all but once.

Marcus McGraw helped limit Tulane by making 10 stops and he has been a tackling machine this season, with a team-high 70 to his credit.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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